Bitcoin price prediction for 2030: Where will it be?

Contents

• Will bears dominate in 2030?
• Bitcoin price predictions: the stock-to-flow model
• What the public think
• Bitcoin prediction for 2030: less volatility?
• More regulation
• FAQs

Attempting a bitcoin price prediction for 2030 is not necessarily a smart thing to do. It can be difficult to estimate what this cryptocurrency will be worth next week, let alone in eight years’ time. 

Many industry heavyweights, Mike Novogratz being one of them, have repeatedly made yearly predictions that ended up being wide of the mark.

There are some who argue that it is possible to get an idea of the bitcoin price in eight years. They point to how bitcoin (BTC) has tended to follow a four-year cycle that delivers explosive gains in the 12 to 18 months after a halving.

However, they are often less keen to mention the bear cycle that usually follows, which shaved a substantial amount off bitcoin’s value in 2018.

Will bears dominate in 2030?

Something to remember when it comes to the bitcoin price in 2030 is that, in theory, this could be a year when bears dominate.

In 2014, two years after the very first halving, BTC lost 37.4% of its value in the first quarter, 39.7% in Q3 and another 16.7% in Q4, making a cumulative loss for the second half of the year of almost 50%.

A similar theme was seen four years later in 2018 – down 49.7% in Q1, 7.7% in Q2 and 42.2% in Q4.

If bitcoin predictions are based on what’s happened in the past (which, of course, is not a reliable indicator of what lies ahead), we could see sizeable corrections for BTC in 2022, 2026 and for the bitcoin price in 2030.

Here we look at some resources for a bitcoin prediction for 2030, with a long-term forecast that examines the milestones we could see within the next decade.

Bitcoin price predictions: the stock-to-flow model

Inevitably, a good place to start with bitcoin price predictions is with the stock-to-flow model produced by pseudonymous trader PlanB. Although it has caused controversy in crypto circles, the model has also won plaudits, with Forbes calling it remarkably accurate.

The premise is simple. Every four years, the number of new bitcoin entering circulation is slashed by 50%. At present, just 6.25 BTC are mined every 10 minutes, the equivalent of about 900 BTC a day. This figure will fall to 3.125 BTC every 10 minutes in 2024, and 1.5625 BTC by 2028. As ever, the theory is that reduced supply causes prices to rise if demand remains high.

Given that just 21 million bitcoin will ever exist, and with long-term crypto investors and institutions holding on to their digital assets for years, only a small proportion of total supply is liquid, forcing newcomers or enthusiasts to pay a premium to get their hands on some.

Based on this model, bitcoin is expected to hit the $900,000 mark at some point in 2025. Analyst Scott Melker assumed that by the end of 2021, bitcoin would have reached an average price of $280,000. Nasdaq also had an optimistic outlook and assumed the price could approach $100,000 in 2021.

However, in real life, these figures were way off the mark and over the course of December 2021, the coin lost 19% of its value and was trading on 1 January 2022 at $47,686. Currently trading at around $33,400; Gov.capital predicts a value for the end of 2022 of $56,356.90.

However, there have been a few major setbacks for bitcoin and the greater crypto market in 2021 and in 2022 so far. Both the Chinese and Russian governments have banned cryptocurrencies. There has been a shutdown in Khazakstan, home to the world’s second-biggest mining hub; wider global regulation; concerns over the environmental impact; and the long-term implications of the pandemic have all had a detrimental effect on the markets.

Many factors should be taken into account when making bitcoin price predictions.

What the public think

Of course, any analyst can speculate on bitcoin’s price in 2030. But, arguably, the opinions that really matter are those of investors, because their thinking could dictate how the market moves as we enter a new decade.

A poll by Genesis Mining in December 2020 gave us a little insight into what common bitcoin price predictions for 2030 look like. It found that 65.8% of existing bitcoin investors were bullish for the long-term future of this digital asset, and 66.3% believed BTC was a better long-term investment than the dollar.

However, there is a very divided picture when respondents are asked how much a bitcoin will be worth in 2030. Just 4.8% believe that it had the potential to be worth more than $500,000, while 5.5% set a range of between $100,000 and $500,000 – and only 18.6% in total forecast that BTC’s valuation will exceed $50,000. Contrast that with the 21.8% who think the price will tumble below $5,000.

It’s worth noting that this poll was performed at the very beginning of bitcoin’s explosive bull run, and the cryptocurrency was trading at about $19,000 when it was released. If the same respondents had been polled when the currency hit its new all-time high of around $66,900 on 20 October 2021, it’s possible that attitudes would have been very different. However, as of 24 January 2022, the coin is valued at approximately $33,400, and the future looks a little less promising in the short term for the speculative asset.  

Bitcoin's price predictions for 2030 rely heavily on the global adoption rate of the currency. El Salvador continues its plans to build its Bitcoin city – and buy more amid the dip – while some commentators such as Ray Dalio, CEO of Bridgewater Associates, suggest there might be a global boycott of bitcoin. Let’s take a look at what analysts are suggesting as the long-term value of the coin develops in the future.

Bitcoin prediction for 2030: less volatility?

Another school of thought says the coin will become less volatile over time. Raoul Pal, founder of on-demand financial TV channel Real Vision, is among those who believe that we will see far less dramatic swings in bitcoin’s value as 2030 nears. That said, he does not believe that BTC will be stable enough to be used for everyday purchases.

Others believe that one billion people will end up owning bitcoin by 2030, although this means that most of them will only be able to own a tiny fraction of the cryptocurrency. That’s a problem because miners need encouragement to keep the network running smoothly – but with BTC rewards dwindling to such a tiny level, they’ll need to be incentivised in the form of transaction fees, which could end up surging.

Although there’s a long-term belief among some that bitcoin could end up exceeding the market capitalisation of gold, few bitcoin price predictions in 2030 anticipate that this leading digital asset will have overtaken fiat.

More regulation

That said, a lot can change in 10 years. A decade ago, bitcoin was worth a mere $1. In the 2020s, we are likely to see countries around the world launch their own central bank digital currencies.

There may also be a concerted push to regulate bitcoin. It’s also possible that a shiny new digital asset could steal BTC’s thunder and become the premier cryptocurrency in its place. Indeed, when Ethereum 2.0 finally comes out later this year, with its much faster transaction speeds and eco-friendly proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism, ether (ETH) could become a true rival to BTC and possibly even overtake it.

The next decade is going to be full of fascinating twists and turns. Predictions can certainly be interesting to read, but it would take a fool to bet money on where bitcoin will stand in nine years’ time. 

Some theorise that bitcoin should exceed the $10trn cap by 2030, given the coin’s past behaviour.

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